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Closed Trade USD/CHF – Failed Surf


This is a closed trade that was placed on July 28th, 2010 as part of the live forex trading bootcamp.This trade happened after a getting stopped out on the USD/JPY & two successful trades, a 55 pip gain & a 31 pip gain on the EUR/USD. So far my overall success rate with trades during the bootcamp is 63.63%, with a 14% average gain.

This trade was placed in a real forex trading account & was posted as it happened. Below you can read the unedited log of this trade to see an example of Forex Surfing in action:

USD/CHF Archive Trade

The trades to watch for for today’s Sydney/Tokyo session are listed below:

USD/CHF

I’m just entered a 1-hr Forex Sail on USD/CHF Forex Sailing opportunity that I discovered during the the London/New York session earlier today. During the last session prices trended up slightly, making the trade just out of range to get in at fibonacci retracement. Today prices have retraced back down to a better entry price. Here’s the order screen with the settings for the order I have placed: Here’s the 1-hr chart used for entering the trade (the circle is the entry price): Here’s the filled out fibonacci worksheet: Here’s the numbers for the recent wave. It’s a double wave, but since they’re both the same size, I just used the 2nd wave for entry (so the numbers below go with the worksheet): I: 1.0479 II: 1.0640 III: 1.0565 entry: 1.0564 long stop: 1.0479 (max risk = 85 pips) limit: 1.0739 (potential profit = 175 pips) reward/risk = 205.88%

Stopped Out

At 09:37 am GMT on 7/29/2010 this trade hit it’s stop for a loss of 85 pips. It basically went straight down after placing the trade. It happens with some trades.

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USD/CHF 10-min trade example


This is an actual trade that was posted to the private blog for the LIVE 90 day forex trading bootcamp, click here to join the LIVE bootcamp.

The Trade as It Happened

It’s 2:20 am GMT on July 8th, 2010. I just placed a trade on the USD/CHF.

I just placed a trade on the USD/CHF. Here are the details:

currency pair: USD/CHF

timeframe: 10-min

Most Recent 10-min wave:

I – 1.0523

II – 1.0479

III – 1.0508

Entry: 1.0495 short

Stop: 1.0523

Limit: 1.0464

Max Profit: 31 pips

Max Risk: 28 pips

Reward/Risk: 110.7% size: 1,000 units @400:1 leverage – 1.335% of account risked.

*When entering this trade, I actually misread the spreadsheet. I should have waited for the price to go up a little further before entering. Since the reward/risk is still > 100%, I’ll stay in the trade. Looking at all timeframes, there’s a downtrend – which you can see on my filled in market snapshot: Here’s the chart that I saw: usd/chf entry chart 10-min candlesHere’s the fibonacci sheet I filled in: fibonacci calculator completed for usd/chf 10-min tradeAnd the orders placed: entry order for usd/chf 10-min trade on etoro platformAnd then adjust stop & limits:

adjusting a stop order on etoro web trading platformadjusting a limit order on the etoro forex trading platform

What I’m Waiting For

This trade still represents a good short opportunity, I just got a less than great entry price. I’m watching the 1-min & 5-min charts to see if the price will go up near 1.0508 (III) and then turn back down. Since I only have 1.335% of my account at risk, doubling this trade to 2.7% is still ok. This will average out to a better entry price for 2,000 units. If the price doesn’t bounce off the 1.0508 price, I’ll simply get stopped out :(

20 Minutes into the trade

The price has shot up to the 1.0508 level. Now it’s testing the resistance of the channel that formed earlier in the day. Here is where I’m looking on 1-min charts to see if the recent 1-min uptrend that’s moved to the 1.0508 level will be broken by a bounce. I’ll know this when a 1-min and/or 5-min umbrella handle forms. Or it’ll keep going up & blow the trade… Here’s what I’m hoping for with fingers crossed:

Stopped Out for a $2.66 loss

At 3:28 am GMT I got stopped out for a $2.66 loss of 28 pips. This loss would have been less if I hadn’t entered at a lowe reward/risk of 111%, but sometimes you make mistakes… This was one of those times. What’s a shame is that it looks like this trade may still happen the way I intended and this loss could have only been a pip or two away from profit.

Final Thoughts

This trade is a perfect example of when a trade simply goes against you. You can’t be right all of the time, this was one of those times. We had a nice consolidation breakout moving down in the direction of the higher timeframe trends. Unfortunately, this was a time when the trend ended. This is why money management for forex trading is crucial, so you can live to trade another day :)

As a 90 day forex trading bootcamp member, you’ll don’t just see the perfect trades, you also see the ones that don’t work out. This is real forex trading, not just theory…

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USD/CHF 1-hour trade example


This trade is a closed trade that was placed in the LIVE 90 day forex trading bootcamp, which shows you an actual trade that made 47.95% profit in 35 hours. This is just one of the many trades that I am sharing as part of the LIVE 90 day forex trading bootcamp.

The current time is 7:49 pm GMT on 06/28/2010, I just opened a trade on the USD/CHF. Looking at the current market snapshot, there’s an opportunity on the 1-hour & 30-min USD/CHF charts: Here are the details:

currency pair: USD/CHF

timeframe: 1-hour

Most Recent 1-hour wave: I – 1.0939

II – 1.0814

III – 1.0896

Entry: 1.0870 short

Stop: 1.0939

Limit: 1.0771

Max Profit: 125 pips

Max Risk: 43 pips

Reward/Risk: 290.7%

Entry Chart USD/CHF 1-hour

This is the chartshot that I used to enter this trade: As you can see, this trade signals the beginning of a third wave in a 3-wave pattern. Since we’ve reached point V by hitting the 61.8% level, this is a strong signal to go short.

Fibonacci Calculator

When I put the numbers in the calculator, I forgot it was a 3rd wave of a 3 wave pattern. Since the 2nd wave was shorter, it doesn’t matter since we use the shorter wave for a 3rd wave. Since I only used the single wave calculator, the same result is obtained. In my screen shot below, you’ll see that I used the most recent wave in the single wave calculator. This was a slight mistake, but it turned out not to matter…

Placing order at eToro

Step #1 is to hit “sell” on your currency pair (see image below). When you hit this button, you haven’t entered the trade yet. You will enter it when you complete step #2. Step #2 is to adjust your leverage to 400:1 & your risk to $25 & hit “open trade” (see image below): Step #3 is to adjust your stop & limit prices from your “open trade” screen. You can do this by clicking on the dropdown arrows from your open trade screen. Now the trade is live! I’ll update this trade when something changes. For now, there is a stop & limit so there is a clear exit strategy.

Trade Adjusted – Moved Stop

When the price moved below 1.0814 (IV on the picture below), this was a signal to move the stop to V. Since there is already a profit in the trade with a nice downtrend on 15-min, 30-min, 1-hr, & 4-hr charts, I’ve moved the stop up even further to 1.0840 to lock in a guaranteed profit of at least 30 pips. Not only can this trade no longer lose money, the worst that can happen is that I walk away with a 30 pip profit.

How Did I come up with 1.0840 as my stop?

Look at this picture below: In the picture above, notice the 3 dotted lines. These are the fibonacci lines for the recent downtrending wave. Notice how currenct prices have moved into a consolidation below the 61.8% level (38.2% retracement). Since the most recent wave hasn’t hit that level yet, I wanted to choose a stop that allows it. 1.0840 is a former support for two attempts at downward movement, so it’s a good resistance line to try to ride this trade further down. This allows downside potential for a breakout down on the recent consolidated range & locks in profits in the event of an upside channel breakout.

Stopped Out for 30 Pip Profit

On 6/30/2010 at 6:33 am GMT the trade hit the stop for a 30 pip profit when the price hit 1.0840. Had I kept the original stop, the trade would have hit it’s original profit limit of 1.0771 for a 125 pip profit. Some of the live bootcamp members didn’t adjust their trade and captured nearly 100 pips on this trade.

Final Thoughts

I was a little aggressive with a tighter stop on this trade. Since the 4-hour chart had a really strong downtrend it would have been fairly safe to keep the original stop until the price reached the newer low (falling below point IV), at that point I could have raised my stop to breakeven (entry price) and would have still made 125 pips. The price of locking in 30 pips profit was that it cost me 95 extra pips to play it safe. I’m never upset about taking profits, so this was definitely a good trade. I made 47.95% profit on this trade on the money I risked, which is superior to any type of savings account or mutual fund in terms of ROI. If you’d like to see these trades live, as they develop – there’s still time to register for the LIVE 90 day forex trading bootcamp, so you don’t miss any more opportunities.

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